Russia’s Future Is Far More France Than China

And It’s Time The Kremlin Started Acting Like It

By Will Baumgardner

Russia is no longer the world superpower that it was as a part of the Soviet Union. In a world of emerging bipolarity, the largest geographic country in the world increasingly plays a secondary role to the US and China. However, Russia’s foreign policy all too often resembles a relic of its Soviet past. In order to adapt to its post-superpower reality, the Kremlin should adopt the foreign policy of a more regional power by taking cues from France’s success in the international arena.

Russia – A Former Superpower in Decline

There is stark evidence of Russia’s fall from superpower status. Most obviously, after a decade of stagnation[i], Russia’s $1.7 trillion[ii] GDP occupies a small and declining share of the world economy, paling in comparison with those of the US and China. To make matters worse, Russians’ real disposable incomes have fallen by 8% in the first half of 2020 alone.

This economic stagnation mirrors political stagnation. Ruling Russia for nearly 21 years, Putin has been forced to carry out an aggressive foreign policy abroad[iii] and a farce of a constitutional referendum[iv] at home to cement his power. Domestic discontent in Russia has only increased in recent years, and the authorities’ arrest of opposition leader Aleksey Navalny and brutal crackdown on ensuing protests[v] show that the regime is running out of ways to keep the peace. In the longer term, Russia faces a demographic crisis that could see its population fall by 7% by 2050[vi].

Despite its decline, Russia still practices a muscular and expansive foreign policy. Russia’s military spending is 3.9% of its GDP[vii], over 10% more than the US (3.4%)[viii] and double that of France (1.9%)[ix]. Consequently, Russia often relies on hard power to solve conflicts, which causes significant friction with its neighbors in the post-Soviet space. Meanwhile, while Russia’s support for regimes as far flung as Venezuela[x] and Cuba[xi] makes sense for a global superpower, it is superfluous for a declining power.

France – Punching Above its Weight

With an economy similar in size[xii] to Russia’s, France makes an outsized impact on the international arena. Recently ranked as the world’s leading nation for soft power[xiii], France under Emmanuel Macron invests seriously to promote its culture abroad by spending hundreds of millions of Euros[xiv] to support the French language in the former French colonies of Africa.

France’s promotion of its culture goes beyond language. The French state makes a concerted effort to export brands like the Louvre and Dior[xv], and  very effectively promotes itself as a tourist destination. This cultural advertisement ensures the future of a Francophone world over which France will hold sway.

Furthermore, France effectively acts as the leading political voice in the European Union, despite Germany’s significantly larger economy, by taking the lead on issues from rapprochement with Russia to the EU’s engagement with China[xvi].  

The Kremlin Must Adapt

Russia should replicate France’s embrace of soft power and political leadership. Russia’s many frozen conflicts[xvii] leave it in a poor diplomatic position, and Moscow should look for constructive ways to solve them.

To start, Moscow would be wise to offer the return of the Donbass to Ukraine in exchange for international recognition of Russia’s control of Crimea. While such a deal is far from a sure thing, it is important that Russia be seen working to constructively and politically resolve its conflicts. Resolving these frozen conflicts, paired with a renewed commitment to respecting the territorial integrity of its neighbors would, in time, give Moscow the credibility that it needs to act with legitimacy as a regional political leader.

Furthermore, the Kremlin should transfer some of its military budget towards the promotion of the Russian language and culture in its near abroad. This move is in keeping with a holistic approach to national security, which takes into account the security benefits of having friendly neighbors in your own cultural orbit.

In keeping with a foreign policy strategy that matches current realities, Russia must refrain from overcommitting its geopolitical future to China. Foreign policy experts have been quick to declare a Sino-Russian alliance[xviii], but they are mistaken.

While the countries both oppose a US-dominated world, Russia’s diminutive economy means that it will never be on equal footing with China. Moreover, the two countries’ foreign policy objectives rarely align[xix] outside of their shared anti-US stances.

Instead, Russia should take advantage of its geographic location bridging East and West by acting as a swing state between Europe and China. Facing both East and West, Russia can force Europe and China to vie for its favor in the form of economic deals and diplomatic cooperation rather than continuing on the path to being China’s junior partner.

Emmanuel Macron himself even recognizes the validity of this strategy, calling[xx] to improve European-Russian relations in the face of a rising China. Russia ought to engage eagerly with this appeal and show its willingness to support dialogue with any European official calling for rapprochement. This strategy would also diversify Russia’s economic and diplomatic partnerships to ensure that it maintains its strategic independence, which has been a pillar of the Kremlin’s economic policy[xxi] in recent years.

Towards a Russian Foreign Policy Grounded in Reality

Russia simply can no longer afford to maintain the foreign policy of a superpower even as its power wanes in the international arena. Instead, Russia must look to France, a country that has successfully navigated the transition from great power to regional power, for inspiration as to how to best move forward. This path forward must revolve around the deployment of soft power, as well as a careful balancing of Europe and China. Russia’s foreign policy future lies in embracing this role as a regional power. The Kremlin should start acting like it.

 

Citations

[i] Leon Aron, The Coronavirus Could Imperil Putin’s Presidency, Wall St. J. (Apr. 23, 2020), available athttps://www.wsj.com/articles/the-coronavirus-could-imperil-putins-presidency-11587682524?mod=opinion_lead_pos5.

 

[ii] GDP – Russian Federation, world bank. (2019), available at https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=RU.

 

[iii] Nina Khrushcheva, Russia’s Crimea invasion was good for Putin. But five years later, the nationalist glow is gone, nbc news. (March 18, 2019), available at https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/russia-s-crimea-invasion-was-good-putin-five-years-later-ncna984431 .

[iv] Andrew Higgins, The Theatrical Method in Putin’s Vote Madness, n.y. times. (July 1, 2020), available at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/world/europe/putin-referendum-vote-russia.html.

 

[v] Russia arrests thousands as crackdown on Navalny allies continues, al jazeera. (Jan. 31,

2021), available at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/31/navalny-allies-plan-fresh-protests-as-russia-steps-up-crackdown.

 

[vi] Michael Kofman, Russian Demographics And Power: Does The Kremlin Have A Long Game?, war on the rocks. (Feb. 4, 2020), available at https://warontherocks.com/2020/02/russian-demographics-and-power-does-the-kremlin-have-a-long-game/.

 

[vii] Siemon T. Wezeman, Russia’s military spending: Frequently asked questions, sipri. (April 27, 2020), available at https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topical-backgrounder/2020/russias-military-spending-frequently-asked-questions.

 

[viii] Ibid.

 

[ix] Ibid.

 

[x] Leon Aron and Ryan C. Berg, Russia continues playing role in shaping the future of Venezuela, aei. (May 18, 2020), available at https://www.aei.org/op-eds/russia-continues-playing-role-in-shaping-the-future-of-venezuela/.

 

[xi] Dimitri Simes, Putin is resurrecting Russia’s Cold War pact with Cuba, the spectator. (Feb. 6, 2020), available at https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/putin-is-resurrecting-russia-s-cold-war-pact-with-cuba.

 

[xii] The Top 25 Economies in the World, investopedia. (December 24, 2020), available at https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/.

 

[xiii] Alex Gray, France becomes the world No 1 for soft power, world econ. f. (July 27, 2017), available at https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/07/france-new-world-leader-in-soft-power/.

 

[xiv] Ibid.

 

[xv] Thomas Adamson, Brand diplomacy: in Louvre, France hones soft power strategy, the seattle times. (Nov. 13, 2017), available at https://www.seattletimes.com/business/brand-diplomacy-in-louvre-france-hones-soft-power-strategy/.

 

[xvi] Judy Dempsey, Judy Asks: Is Macron Europe’s New Foreign Policy Leader?, carnegie eur. (Oct. 10, 2019), available at https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/80042.

 

[xvii] Olesya Vartanyan, Antagonizing the Neighborhood: Putin’s Frozen Conflicts and the Conflict in Ukraine, int’l crisis group. (March 11, 2020), available at https://www.crisisgroup.org/united-states/antagonizing-neighborhood-putins-frozen-conflicts-and-conflict-ukraine.

 

[xviii] Alexander Gabuev, The Pandemic Could Tighten China’s Grip on Eurasia, foreign policy. (April 23, 2020), available at https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/23/coronavirus-pandemic-china-eurasia-russia-influence/.

 

[xix] Leon Aron, Are Russia and China Really Forming an Alliance?, foreign affairs. (April 4, 2019), available at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2019-04-04/are-russia-and-china-really-forming-alliance.

 

[xx] Macron calls for better long-term relations with Russia, france 24. (Feb. 15, 2020), available at https://www.france24.com/en/20200215-macron-calls-for-better-long-term-relations-with-russia.

 

[xxi] Russia’s National Wealth Fund Now Has Over $157bn, russia bus. today. (March 31, 2020), available at https://russiabusinesstoday.com/economy/russias-national-wealth-fund-now-has-over-157bn/.