It’s official y’all: the NBA season is right around the corner, and I honestly could not be more excited (if you couldn’t already tell from this blog, I’m a basketball fanatic).

Ok, that’s a slight exaggeration. Tip-off is still five weeks away, but teams around the league started their fall practice schedule this week, allowing fans to catch a first glimpse of their favorite NBA squads. And with the majors shake-ups that took place in the league over the summer – both in free agency deals and trades – I decided it’d be appropriate to write the classic, “a-little-early-but-not-too-early” free agency Winners and Losers blog post.

I know what you’re thinking – “Ishan, this is probably the most cliche entry that you could think of.” (Also probably something about my charming personality or dashing looks) But unlike the conventional “free agency” article, I’m going add an extra layer of analysis by using, you guessed it, advanced metrics.

Let’s get to it.

WINNERS

Boston Celtics

For the first time since the big-three era, the Celts have finally landed a big-time, free agent talent. Al Horford wasn’t Boston’s primary target during the off-season, but after losing the Kevin Durant sweepstakes, picking him up was the next best move; he’s the missing piece of Brad Steven’s enigmatic puzzle.

Low-key, the Celtics were one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference in 2016. Although their playoff performance was marred by a slew of late-season injuries, for the majority of the year, they boasted a strong offensive game guided by ball movement (they created 57.0 assists/game as a team, good for fifth in the league) and an incredibly stingy defense. Their defensive rating, 100.9, was tied for fourth in the NBA with the Warriors and Clippers, who many commentators view as defensive powerhouses.

The one noticeable weakness of last year’s Boston team was its ability to find reliable production from its front court. Aside from the recently re-signed Amir Johnson and Jae Crowder – who I believe is going to have a breakout season in 2017 –  the Celtics’ big man combo of Tyler Zeller and Jared Sullinger was not dynamic or efficient enough to diversify their offense. Yet, in signing Horford, the Celtics gained a big-time stretch shooter with an extensive range, as well as a ball facilitator who can operate from the elbow. Last season with the Hawks, Horford shot at a true clip of 56.5% and averaged an assist percentage of 16.7%, a very high number considering his role in their offensive scheme.

Don’t be fooled. The Celtics may not have the traditional star power of other playoff contenders, but they’re poised to make a deep playoff run in the East. You can count on it.

Golden State Warriors

Critics will say that the Warriors don’t have front court depth. Or that they lost critical bench players.

Let’s be real though; critics are wrong. Kevin Durant, far and away, makes the Warriors a super team that the league has never seen before.

The signing of Durant was an unprecedented move by Golden State’s front office, adding one of the best offensive players to the NBA’s best offensive team. In 2015-16, Durant had the fifth best VORP (value over replacement player) rating, and second best Offensive Plus/Minus and Win Shares rating, below only his new teammate, 2015-16 MVP Stephen Curry.

That doesn’t even take into consideration how good the Warriors already were. Last year, Golden State ranked first in Offensive Rating, second in Net Rating, and second in PIE, a statistical measurement that calculates the overall impact that a team has on a game. And for the haters that claim that Durant will clash with Curry, the Warriors’ two best statistics in 2016 were assists created per game and PACE, which measured at 70.0 (1st in NBA) and 101.65 (2nd in NBA), respectively. Incorporating Durant into the offense, especially with coach Steve Kerr at the helm, will pose little challenge to the league runner-ups.

Quite frankly, this one is a little self-explanatory. Anytime you sign a top three player in the NBA, you can chalk it up as a successful off-season move.

(Also, it should be noted that playing with the Warriors in 2k is illegal. They’re just too filthy.)

LOSERS

Los Angeles Lakers

There was only one significant loser in my mind when I thought about free agency, and of course, it was the Lakers.

Luol Deng will provide a much-needed veteran presence in the locker room, but that doesn’t change the fact that the Lakers’ marquee acquisition this off-season was Timofey Mosgov, a mediocre player with poor reliability and limited skill. According to CARMELO ratings from FiveThirtyEight, Mosgov has a five year market value of 1.6 million. The Lakers inked him to a 4 year, 64 million dollar deal.

Los Angeles does have a promising back court duo in Jordan Clarkson and D’Angelo Russell, but they seriously needed to address some big man concerns through free agency. In 2016, the Lakers were in the bottom ten in defensive rebounding rate and post touches, limiting their offensive and defensive versatility.

The only true bright spot for the league’s most celebrated franchise is Brandon Ingram, the Lakers’ second overall pick in June’s NBA draft. Based on future CARMELO projections, Ingram, a lanky scorer with an explosive first step, is predicted to have a WAR upwards of 10.0, establishing him as a potential future all-star. However, the criteria for my evaluation is solely based on player transactions in the free agency period, so picking Ingram was not factored into the assessment.

We all knew that the Los Angeles would prioritize the development of its young core over making a rash, impulsive signing to win games in the upcoming season. But with the sheer amount of cap space that they had to spend, the Lakers’ performance was certainly underwhelming.

 

Got a thought that you want to share? Post it in the comments section below.