Tag Archives: Correlation vs. Causation

Illusory Correlation

For most of us, trying to make sense out of the chaos that is our life is a daily struggle. It’s one of the ways we’ve come to cope with how random it can really be. We’ll try to discern patterns in things that are seemingly devoid of patterns. We’ll come up with ideas to clear up confusion. This has really helped to keep us going along as a species, yet it doesn’t always work out the way it seems. Yes, it does work sometimes, but those sometimes only matter if they can happen all the time. The rest of the time it’s just mere speculation or superstition. In psychology, this occurrence is called an illusory correlation. In the random events that continually happen in our lives, some will have a pattern that seem to have significant meaning, but this only happens because of the large scale of events that occur for the few to have had a chance to seem connected.

An example would be when I attempt to catch a ride on the CATA bus. My ipod touch only has wifi access, so the only time I have access to the internet is where I can get a connection through PSU’s wifi. This is important because I like to use the CATA-bus app to keep track of how far away the buses are from my stop, but this requires access to the internet. Luckily, I’ve been able to connect to the internet at the bus stops that I regularly waited at. This led me to believe that the bus stops had a small device that provided wifi for people to gain access to the internet in order to use the bus app. What I didn’t know was that the bus stops I regularly waited at were beside dorms and other such buildings that were the source of the wifi. It wasn’t until I had to wait at other stops that I realized that I was wrong. A couple of coincidental occurrences had led me to believe that a particular thing was true, but really, it was only because I was trying to make sense of the randomness of it all. Wifi near bus stops depended on the buildings near them to provide wifi.

Stereotypes – Illusory Correlation

Since I am Chinese, my friends usually assume that I will get the “Asian glow” if I have drank enough alcoholic beverages. For those of you that do not know what I am talking about – the “Asian glow” is basically when an Asian person becomes visibly flushed or red. This is because of biological reasons to counteract the alcohol. It is unfortunate but incredibly true for me, especially in my face. However, the fact is, this is not true for all Asians and happens in people of other ethnicities as well. This stereotype is an example of illusory correlation, in which there is a perception of a relationship where none exists. Illusory correlations probably occur on a daily basis without our knowledge – stereotypes and superstitions are simple examples. If someone was to read and take into account their daily horoscope, the prediction of their day exemplifies superstition. Other superstition examples may include Michael Jordan’s need to wear his college basketball shorts under his NBA uniform, starting the whole long-shorts trend. Many people have superstitions of what gives them luck, just as the Chinese believe the color red is lucky – being Chinese New Year and Year of the Horse, it is said that if you were born in the year of the horse, you should wear red underwear. More common than superstitions is stereotypes – it is almost human nature to judge someone or stereotype someone to a certain degree when you first meet them because (I personally think) first impressions cause one to think about someone else that you have previously met in your life, making one believe that someone you just met will act a certain way because that person reminds you of another. When looking at these examples more thoroughly, one will notice that there is some kind of fault in such logic – wearing red underwear will not necessarily make you lucky and just because someone reminds you of another, it does not mean that they are the same person in their actions or values. The important idea to take away is that correlation does not equal causation. Illusory correlation causes one to think that because one event has taken place, another event will be the effect, when in fact this is not necessarily true with correlating data.