For all of the Northeasterners who were pummeled with last years winter storms I have bad news, brace yourself it’s happening again. Last year the Northeast and New England was hit with an unprecedented amount of snow and a seemingly endless cold front lovingly referred to by the media as the polar vortex. I had heard around campus that this winter was supposed to be worse than last and it wasn’t until I searched for the Farmer’s Almanac that I found this to be unfortunately true.
For those who don’t know the Farmer’s Almanac is posted somewhere during September and predicts what the following years weather will be for the nation, similar to a real life ground hog. Being the fake scientist that I am I tried to research how the Farmer’s Almanac predicted this information year in and year out with a high success rate, however I was led to a dead end. According to their website it is done through a secret formula. Their website states, “The only person who knows all the details of our formula is Caleb Weatherbee, our esteemed weather prognosticator. The formula itself is locked in the heart and mind of its calculator. While Caleb is a real person who lives somewhere in the United States, his true identity and name are secret.” (FarmersAlmanac.com). I guess we will never know how this information is predicted, so it is hard to know whether to trust it or not. However the website says that they are correct 80% of the time, which I think are pretty good odds if you ask me.
Now what does this mean for our winter? According to the Almanac most of New England will be reprieved of extra snowfall for once. All that extra snow, will instead be dumped back on the Northeast once again. In addition temperatures are expected to once again be colder than normal, except not drastically, only varying 2-5 degrees from the average. Although annoying it looks like it will be something we just have to live with.
Looking further into the future I was curious is the harsh winters due to global warming and I found a resounding yes. Scientists that study the Arctic found that the melting ice caps have changed our winter patterns, leaving us with colder air for longer and increasing the change of huge winter storms like we have seen. This is because due to the melting ice caps the sun has more surface area to warm, further melting the ice and raising the sea levels. The added water levels are then absorbed into the atmosphere and increasing air pressure and moisture in the Arctic. (Richard Ingham). Because there is so much moisture in the air the polar vortex that usually surrounds the Arctic begins to weaken and travel further south. The freezing temperatures and abundance of moisture from melting then are dumped on the Northeast and New England, creating the harsh winters we’ve been subjected to.
At least for this winter it looks like there is nothing we can do but stick it out. But for the future a reduction in our carbon footprint may help to prevent the polar vortex from visiting our doorsteps again. Until then, let it snow let it snow let it snow, because it’s going to anyway.
Works Cited
Boehrer, Katherine. “Farmer’s Almanac Predicts ‘Super-Cold’ Winter, More Snow In Eastern U.S.” The Huffington Post. TheHuffingtonPost.com, 21 Aug. 2014. Web. 22 Oct. 2014.
“How Does the Farmers’ Almanac Predict the Weather? – Farmers’ Almanac.” The Farmers Almanac RSS. The Farmers Almanac, n.d. Web. 22 Oct. 2014.
Ingham, Richard. “Is Global Warming Causing Harsher Winters? – Wunderground.com.” Weather Wunderground. Weather Wunderground, 28 Mar. 2013. Web. 22 Oct. 2014.
I agree with Kathleen, the weather is extremely unpredictable, and is based on chance, there could be another influence, causing a softer winter. However, I highly doubt that happening, I’m sure this winter will be pretty bad, I just though that was important to point out.
I’m from the midwest, and last year was the worst winter in years in terms of temperature (multiple days where it was below negative 40 degrees). But I would like to know what climate scientists/meteorologists are predicting for this season. Also, the website says that they are correct 80% of the time–what exactly are they predicting? Actual temperature variations and amounts of snowfall, or just generalizations of “this winter will be better/worse than the last”?
I have to wonder how much substantial evidence there is to prove that it will be a bad winter for us here at Penn State this year? I have heard the rumor myself, and having lived in State College all of my life I have no doubts that there’s a good chance it’ll be a nasty winter – especially with the mild summer we had earlier this year. I do have my skepticism about this Farmer’s Almanac – anything with a secret calculation or secret man who we don’t know who he is, it sounds fishy to me. However, 80-85% accurate predictions is difficult to argue with. Whatever their formula is, it certainly holds some accuracy.
Luckily for me, I don’t mind the snow too much, mostly because I make good money shoveling every time it snows. The winter is not the only crazy way global warming is changing the world’s weather patterns. The winters are getting colder, the summers are getting hotter, fall and spring and getting shorter, and more and more large tropical storms are formed every year. So while we keep damaging our planet get ready for more extreme weather at all times of the year, not just this winter.
http://www.nwf.org/Wildlife/Threats-to-Wildlife/Global-Warming/Global-Warming-is-Causing-Extreme-Weather.aspx
I don’t doubt that this will be a bad winter, maybe even worse than last, but weather is very unreliable and based on chance. Even though the Farmer’s Almanac is allegedly right 80% of the time, you really never know.