Tag Archives: investing

Keeping Things Interesting

As we close in on Valentine’s Day, I’d like to talk with you about interest.  But not your interest in that attractive person you have on your radar.  Interest on debt.  And interest on investments.

Did you know that there are two different kinds of interest?  Many people don’t realize this.  Simple interest and compound interest are two very different things.  And they are both good in the right situation.  And they are both bad in the wrong situation.

Simple interest is what most people think of when they borrow money.  When you borrow a car loan or a student loan or a home mortgage, simple interest is what you will typically encounter.  Simple interest is calculated based on the amount of the principal of the loan.  And only on the principal.  So if you borrow $100,000 at 8% interest, your payments will be amortized out over a designated number of years (10 or 25 years for a student loan, usually 30 years for a mortgage, and typically 4 to 7 years for a car loan).  Your payment will consist of a portion of interest and a portion of principal.  Let’s say that $100,000 at 8% is amortized over 10 years.  Your first payment would include $6,085 in principal and $7,754 in interest. But the next month’s payment would be based on $93,915 in principal, so the interest would be only $7,189.  And as you progress through the ten years of the amortization, your payment consists of less interest and more principal every month.  Eventually, somewhere in the middle, you reach a point where you are paying more in principal than in interest each month.  But you have never had to pay interest on more than the $100,000 you initially borrowed.

In a savings or investment situation simple interest is NOT what you want.  In that situation you would earn interest only on the principal.  If you invest $100,000 at 8% you would earn only $8000 in interest for the year.  But if that interest were compounded each month, you would earn $8,300 because in addition to earning interest on the $100,000, you would also be earning interest on the accruing interest.

So you can probably see where I am going here.  Compounding interest is calculated based on the principal plus any interest that has accrued.  And in a savings or investment environment, that is exactly what you want, because it makes your money grow faster.

In a debt situation, compounding interest is the enemy.  And that is exactly how credit cards work if you don’t pay them off in full every month.  Let’s assume that you put $2,000 on a credit card at 18% interest, and you pay only the minimum monthly payment of $100.  You would think that at that pace it would take 20 months to pay off the $2,000.  But because the interest compounds (quite often daily) it would take at least 24 months to clear that $2,000 debt.  Credit card companies quite often compound your interest daily.  That 18% interest rate on $2,000 calculates out to about almost one dollar a day.  So every single day the credit card company is adding a dollar to your balance due.  Compounding interest is exactly what you do not want in a debt situation.  Does this make you want to go read the small print on your credit card statement to find out how often they compound the interest?  It probably should.

Interest can be scary.  But it can also be your friend.  In debt you want to keep things simple.  In investments you want things to compound.  But either way, I hope you found this INTERESTing.

Making Bets

Gambling seems to be everywhere these days.  The commercials for betting apps inundate my TV.  With the Super Bowl in Las Vegas (the casino capitol of the country) this year, the number of things you could bet on seemed to be never-ending….right down to the color of Taylor Swift’s shirt.  Casinos are popping up in shopping malls.  Sports betting is an app on your phone.  Lottery tickets are available from a vending machine at the convenience store.  It’s pervasive.

Betting on things is generally not the best idea.  It’s definitely not a solid plan for a stable income.  You should never bet money that you can’t afford to lose.  The lottery is a tax on people who are bad at math.  The odds are always stacked against you.  Yet that doesn’t stop me from occasionally buying a Power Ball ticket and dreaming of what I would do if I won several million dollars.  It’s not an investment strategy.  It’s a source of entertainment. I don’t do it often, and I go into it knowing I’m probably going to lose.

There are ways to make bets that are not necessarily detrimental.  One year I used my income tax refund to buy some stocks.  I picked a few companies whose products I used and bought 10 shares of each.  One of those companies was a DVD rental by mail company called Netflix.  Those 10 shares cost me $170, and I sold them several years later for a few thousand dollars.  That was a good bet, which funded the installation of central air conditioning in my house.  I don’t remember what the other stocks I bought at that time were….because they were not good bets.

There are more educated, less risky ways to bet on things.  My retirement fund is largely in stocks, but it is managed by people who do that for a living—people that do research and keep things balanced appropriately for where my risk level should be at this point in my career.  It’s definitely beyond my skillset.  But there is still some risk involved in anything that involves the stock market.  There’s still some level of betting involved.

One of the smartest bets you can make is to bet on yourself.  Every time you pursue something new, you are betting on yourself.  Maybe you are taking a new job.  Maybe pursuing a new degree or certification. Maybe starting a business. Maybe something as simple as cooking a new recipe for the first time. Every time you attempt something, you are betting on yourself.  You won’t always succeed.  But you are taking the risk and putting yourself out there. And the person who bets on themself is miles ahead of the person who is afraid to try.

Regardless of what color shirt Taylor Swift wore to the Super Bowl, there are good bets and bad bets.  But betting on yourself is ALWAYS a good bet.

Crypto: Enter at Your Own Risk

I watched the Super Bowl on Sunday.  I’m not normally a pro football fan (though I do faithfully watch Penn State football games).  But there’s something about the Super Bowl that I really enjoy.  It’s a purely American event.  I sit on the couch with my husband and eat pork rinds and pizza and chicken wings as we watch the game.  And when the game doesn’t hold my attention, the commercials generally do.  My personal favorite this year was the Doritos-loving Sloth.  But the thing that kept popping up in the ads this year was cryptocurrency.  I was stunned by the number of ads for both crypto and for places to store your crypto.  And it made me realize just how little I know about the topic.

I started in on research and was quickly in over my head.  The things I did gather is that there is the cryptocurrency itself (Bitcoin, Dogecoin, etc.) and the crypto wallets (Coinbase, Mycelium, etc.).  The currency that doesn’t physically exist is then stored in these wallets that don’t physically exist.  The whole thing is a bit unsettling to me.  There have been so many news stories about how crypto has been extraordinarily volatile.  So this is less like a savings account and more like an investment in the stock market.  Except even more volatile.  I’m normally not terribly conservative with my investment strategies, but crypto is not where I want my retirement funds to be invested.  I think if I were to venture into this world, I would not invest anything that I wasn’t prepared to lose altogether.  And that’s the same strategy I use for gambling (I like the nickel slots on rare occasion, as well as raffle and lottery tickets).  I go in prepared to lose.  It’s a form of entertainment rather than an investment.

I think the reason the crypto commercials left me feeling unsettled is because of the sheer number of those ads.  The last time I remember that many similarly-based Super Bowl ads was in 2000, for Super Bowl XXXIV.  Fourteen different tech companies (most of them no longer in existence) advertised during that Super Bowl, which is why it is still referred to as the Dot Com Super Bowl.  What makes this so unsettling for me is what happened just a few months later.  That is when the Dot Com Bubble burst.  A lot of people lost a LOT of money in the stock market that year.  A lot of tech companies lost significant value, and even more shuttered altogether. (Personally I breathed a huge sigh of relief that I had sold most of my investments in 1999 to put a down payment on a condo).

Cryptocurrency might be the way of the future.  Or it might not.  But right now, I’m looking at it more as a gamble than as an investment.

This Is Why I Don’t Work In Finance

I was trying hard to find a way to write an explanation of the crazy stock market thing that happened with Game Stop and hedge funds and Reddit.  But the reality is I don’t really understand how it worked.  Corporate Finance was a class I hated when I took it.  It’s really complicated and somehow the Reddit people caused the hedge fund people to lose a lot of money.  The hedge fund people were trying to make money by betting on the failure of Game Stop.  And the Reddit people ganged up on the hedge fund people and drove the price of the stock up by buying a lot of it, which made the hedge fund people lose a lot of money because Game Stop stock went up instead of down.  I don’t really understand the details of it beyond that.  But it seems like the hedge fund people were mean to Game Stop because they were rooting for the stock to fail.  And the Reddit people were mean to the hedge fund people because they orchestrated this attack to cause the hedge funds to fail.  Who wins?  Only the 10 year old kid who sold his shares of Game Stock when the price was really high.

The whole story makes me worry a little bit.  My retirement savings is mostly in stock investments.  It’s frightening that this sort of planned attack can work.  Are my savings (and the savings of nearly all Americans saving for retirement) at risk?  Will something like this happen again?  Why are investors betting on failure?  Why can’t we all just get along?

As the weird year that is 2021 continues, I guess we just have to buckle our seatbelts and hope for the best.  I wonder what February will bring?  Yes….it’s really only early February….

The Best Kind of Super-Spreader

In elementary school we all learned about multiplication. And we all know how practical that is in solving math problems. But it’s pretty important in other issues as well. Today I’m going to focus on compound interest. Compound interest means that as your investments grow, you earn interest on your accruing interest. This makes your investments grow faster and faster as time passes. This is why it is so important to start your retirement savings when you are young.

Until recently, the best example I had of how compound interest multiplies is this shampoo commercial from my childhood:

But this is 2020. Everything is being viewed in a new light this year. So I’m going to go ahead and say it. Compound interest on investments is like a Covid super-spreader event. A group of people gather and one of them unknowingly carries the coronavirus. By the end of the even, the virus has spread to 10 more people. Each of those 10 goes home and spreads the virus to one or two more people. Who then spread it to another one or two. Who then spread it to another one or two. And so on. And so on. And so on. Before you know it there are 100 cases of Covid that all link back to that super-spreader event.

Ok. Enough of the 2020 doom and gloom. Let’s get back to talking about money. When I was in graduate school (back when dinosaurs roamed the earth) I was furious that the Community College where I was externing withheld $300 per year from my meager stipend to go into the Ohio State Employees Retirement Fund. Retirement was the last thing on my mind at that point when I was having trouble making rent. But I couldn’t stop it. Fast forward a few years and I rolled it into an IRA and forgot about it. Now I look at that tiny $600 investment in an entirely new light. That IRA has grown more than tenfold (despite the Gen-X curse of having three “once in a lifetime” stock market crashes [2001, 2008, and 2020] between the initial investment and now). And the bigger it gets, the faster it grows. I wouldn’t want to try to retire on just that, but it never ceases to amaze me how that tiny amount has grown over the years…all because I’m earning interest not just on the original $600, but also on all of the interest that has accrued on it over the years.

Invest early. Even if it’s only a little bit. It could (and SHOULD) turn into a super-spreader!