2024
The Origins of Elected Strongmen
Oxford University Press (with Erica Frantz and Andrea Kendall-Taylor)
Book Website
2023
How Personalist Parties Undermine State Capacity
Comparative Political Studies (with Jia Li)
Reproduction files Pre-print with Appendix
How to Sharpen a Nonviolent Movement
Journal of Democracy (with Sophia McClennen and Srđa Popović)
Reproduction files Pre-print with Appendix
Personalization of Power and Mass Uprisings in Dictatorships
British Journal of Political Science (with John Chin and Wonjun Song)
Reproduction files Pre-print with Appendix
2022
Migration and Democracy: How Remittances Undermine Dictatorship
Princeton University Press (with Abel Escriba-Folch and Covadonga Meseguer)
Book website 2023 APSA Migration & Citizenship Section Best Book Award
Historical Dictionary of Modern Coups d’etat
Rowman & Littlefield (with John Chin and David Carter)
2023 American Library Association, Best Historical Materials Selection
Review: Library Journal
Reshaping the Threat Environment: Personalism, Coups, and Assassinations
Comparative Political Studies (with John Chin, Abel Escriba-Folch, and Wonjun Song)
Reproduction files Pre-print with Appendix
2021
Personalist Ruling Parties in Democracies
Democratization (with Erica Frantz, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, and Jia Li)
Reproduction files Pre-print Appendix Code book and party-leader narratives
Foreign Aid and Judicial Autonomy
Review of International Organizations (with Margaret Ariotti and Simone Dietrich)
Reproduction files Appendix Pre-print
How Personalist Politics Is Changing Democracies
Journal of Democracy 32(3): 94-108 (with Erica Frantz, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, and Carisa Nietsche)
Reproduction files Luminate Report
The Varieties of Coups D’etat: Introducing the Colpus Dataset
International Studies Quarterly 65(4): 1040–1051 (with John Chin and David Carter)
Reproduction files Appendix Pre-print John Chin’s website with data and coup narratives
The Latent Characteristics that Structure Autocratic Rule
Political Science Research and Methods 9(1): 1-19
APSA 2014, updated 2017, pre-print updated 2019
Reproduction files Appendix
2020
The Digital Dictators: How Technology Strengthens Autocracy
Foreign Affairs 99(2): 102-115 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz)
V-Dem Working Paper 2020:27
Personalization of Power and Repression in Dictatorships
Journal of Politics 82(1): 372-377 (with Erica Frantz, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, and Xu Xu)
Reproduction files Appendix Pre-print Cited in the Interpreter by the New York Times
2018
How Dictatorships Work
Cambridge University Press (with Barbara Geddes and Erica Frantz)
Book website Amazon Google books
Remittances and Protest in Dictatorships
American Journal of Political Science 62(4): 889-904 (with Abel Escriba-Folch and Covadonga Mesegeur)
Reproduction files Appendix Pre-print
Monopoly Rents and Foreign Direct Investment in Fixed Assets
International Studies Quarterly 62(2): 341–356 (with Boliang Zhu)
Reproduction files Appendix SSRN
The North Korean Autocracy in Comparative Perspective
Journal of East Asian Studies 18(2): 157-180 (with Wonjun Song) pre-print
2017
Autocratic Legislatures and Expropriation
British Journal of Political Science 47(1):1-17 (with Matthew Wilson)
Reproduction files Appendix
The Global Rise Personalized Politics
The Washington Quarterly 40(1): 7-19 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz)
How oil income and missing hydrocarbon rents data influence autocratic survival: A response to Lucas and Richter (2016)
Research and Politics 4(3) (with Erica Frantz)
Reproduction files Appendix
Are Coups Good For Democracy? A Response to Miller (2016)
Research and Politics 4(2) (with George Derpanopoulos, Erica Frantz, and Barbara Geddes)
Reproduction files Appendix
2016
The New Dictators: Why Personalism Rules
Foreign Affairs Snapshot (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz)
Foreign Affairs Best of the Web, 2016
Are Coups Good For Democracy?
Research and Politics 3(1) (with George Derpanopoulos, Erica Frantz, and Barbara Geddes)
Reproduction files Appendix Washington Post
Measuring Autocratic Regime Instability
Research and Politics 3(1) (with Daehee Bak)
Reproduction files Appendix
2015
Foreign Pressure and the Politics of Autocratic Survival
Oxford University Press (with Abel Escriba-Folch)
2017 Stein Rokkan Prize for Comparative Social Science Research
Reproduction files Google books
Remittances and Democratization
International Studies Quarterly 59(3): 571–586 (with Abel Escriba-Folch and Covadonga Mesegeur)
Reproduction files Appendix LSE Blog Washington Post
Terrorism and the Fate of Dictators
World Politics 67(3): 423–468 (with Deniz Aksoy and David Carter)
Reproduction files Appendix Coup data case descriptions
Human Rights Prosecutions and Autocratic Survival
International Organization 69(2): 343–373 (with Abel Escriba-Folch)
Reproduction files Appendix
Oil and Autocratic Regime Survival
British Journal of Political Science 45(2): 287–306 (with Erica Frantz and Barbara Geddes)
Reproduction files Appendix Washington Post
Foreign Aid Allocation Tactics and Democratic Change in Africa
Journal of Politics 77(1): 216–234 (with Simone Dietrich)
Reproduction files Appendix AidData blog
2014
Autocratic Breakdown and Regime Transitions: A New Data Set
Perspectives on Politics 12(2): 313–331 (with Barbara Geddes and Erica Frantz)
Reproduction files Data set website Top-10 most cited since 2003
Military Rule
Annual Review of Political Science 17: 147–162 (with Barbara Geddes and Erica Frantz)
2013
Foreign Aid and Democratic Development in Africa (with Simone Dietrich)
in Democratic Trajectories in Africa: Unravelling the Impact of Foreign Aid. Oxford University Press
ed. Danielle Resnick and Nicolas van de Walle
2012
Terrorism in Dictatorships
Journal of Politics 74(3): 810–826 (with Deniz Aksoy and David Carter)
Reproduction files
Authoritarian Institutions and Regime Survival: Transitions to Democracy and Subsequent Authoritarian Regimes
British Journal of Political Science 42(2): 283–309 (with Abel Escriba-Folch) Appendix
2010
Dealing with Tyranny: International Sanctions and the Survival of Authoritarian Rulers
International Studies Quarterly 54(2): 335–359 (with Abel Escriba-Folch) Appendix
The Politics of Effective Foreign Aid
Annual Review of Political Science 13: 61–80 (with Matthew Winters)
Aid Effectiveness and the Politics of Personalism.
Comparative Political Studies 43(6): 735–762 Appendix
Exit During Crisis
Kellogg Institute for International Studies Working Paper #367
2009
How Foreign Aid Can Foster Democratization in Authoritarian Regimes
American Journal of Political Science 53(3): 552–571 Appendix
2008
Do Authoritarian Institutions Constrain? How Legislatures Affect Economic Growth and Investment
American Journal of Political Science 52(2): 322–343
Insurance or Investment? How Authoritarian Time Horizons Impact Foreign Aid Effectiveness
Comparative Political Studies 41(7): 971–1000
Political Competition and Democratic Stability in New Democracies
British Journal of Political Science 38(2): 221–245