I will preface this blog with saying I am sorry for how long it is but that is because I could probably write ten blogs with all of the information gathered about this topic in the past few years. Like I say later in the blog I HIGHLY recommend you take the time to read the New Yorker article (where I gathered most of my information) because it is very interesting and relates to something that has the real chance to actually occur in our lifetimes.
California is no stranger when it comes to earthquakes and the recent attention brought to them by the movie San Andreas has showcased what every Californians biggest fear is. But Unknown to most they are not in the greatest danger on the west coast. That title goes to the Pacific North West Region.
Situated just of the coast of Oregon and Washington, The Cascadia Subduction Zone is a massive fault line that runs for hundreds of miles and is similar in structure to the fault line that was responsible for Japans 2011 Magnitude 9.0 Earthquake and subsequent devastating tsunami. Drilling has been done on the fault in order to study it and they have found evidence of 41 major tsunamis in the past 10,000 years. According to The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), that meant that this fault produces a serious event on average every 240 years, but it has been 315 years since the last earthquake created by this fault. The last earthquake of the Cascadia fault was in the year 1700 and sent a massive tsunami that was 600 FEET HIGH all the way to Japan. To show the magnitude of devastation the Cascadia could cause, Renowned Physicist and professor at the city college of New York Michio Kaku says in an interview with Fox News that we know the Cascadia Fault will produce an earthquake “With the energy 30 times the maximum energy of the San Andreas fault.”
Although this fault will produce earthquakes this strong, it is still unknown to most in the United States and according to the New Yorker, “forty five years ago, no one even knew it existed.” Even after they had discovered the fault it took them another ten years to figure out that it had ever produced any kind of earthquake. This shows how seismology especially is constantly evolving and they continually learn more about what is below our feet. The relatively “recent” discovery of the fault may contribute to its being widely unknown, even to the 70,000 people that live in the potential “inundation zone” where a tsunami wave would completely cover the landscape or the other residents in rest of the hundred and forty thousand square miles that make up the potential area of impact.
The New Yorker posted a very interesting article in July of this year regarding this topic that brought it to the publics attention. It is a relatively long article but I highly suggest you read it because it is extremely informative and goes much more in depth then I do here on what will happen to the cities hit by this disaster. At the current time, FEMA estimates the mega quake could kill thirteen thousand people making it, as the New Yorker puts it, “the worst natural disaster in the history of North America.” They also predict that another twenty seven thousand people will be injured as a result of this event. To put that in perspective of some of the most devastating natural disasters of american history, roughly three thousand people died in the 1906 earthquake in San Fransisco, about two thousand died in Katrina in 2005 and almost 300 died in Hurricane Sandy.
According to the article, “the big one” a 9.0 earthquake would occur and last for about four minutes. Due to the location of the fault in relation to the northwest coast, following the earthquake a massive wall of water up to 100 feet high would make landfall for 700 miles of the west coast only fifteen minutes after the initial quake. During this same time another massive wave will be heading directly for Japans coast. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) says that when this massive wave does occur “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.” that includes some of the major cities in Oregon and Seattle and accounts for over seven million people, not including tourists and others traveling.
Because there has not been much attention given to this area regarding seismic activity, they do not have some of this early warning tools installed that many other areas in the world have. These early warning signals are a series of sensors that can detect the initial compression wave that is created before the earthquake actually hits and can give 2 minutes of warning for these devastating events. When triggered these warning tools can shut down power and railways as well as trigger warning alarm systems to alert the public. We talked today in class about odds and how much of an impact they can have on what your worry level should be. I say that because scientists predict that the odds are roughly one in three that this fault will produce an earthquake in the next 50 years and roughly one in ten that it will be “the big one”. Seeing these scientific odds shows how much more focus should be on this region to become prepared.
This region is also grossly unprepared for a disaster like this to occur. Unlike California which sees earthquakes often, 75% of buildings in the Pacific Northwest are NOT built up to a code that would protect them from the 9.0 earthquake that is imminent in the area. In order to be up to code for an earthquake, buildings are built with safeties to dampen the force of the earthquake as shown with the picture to the right.
I will admit when I
first came across the data about this potentially life threatening situation I was certain it had to be fake but after researching the topic more in depth I now know how much of a serious topic this is and how, in our lifetime, the worst natural disaster in Americas history could occur.