Rock, paper, scissors, shoot! The simple, yet timeless game dates all the way back to the Han Dynasty and is known by many as a method of combining chance and luck in order to determine who gets the last slice of cake, the home side in FIFA, or any other random situation. Although you might think of it as childish, RPS (rock, paper, scissors abbreviated) is actually a mind game comprised of strategy, anticipation, intelligence, and observational skill. Some in fact take it so seriously that they created the USARPS World Championships; before it became extinct, the finals would air on ESPN yearly. It raised so much awareness that Chinese researchers assembled together to crack the science behind RPS.
If you like your odds of guessing at random (33.33%), then statistics reveal that each “weapon” choice will have the same probability in future and previous rounds of the game; this is referred to as a Nash Equilibrium. Curiousity about whether the odds of the game could be manipulated led Chinese scientist Zhijian Wang from Zhejiang University to conduct an experiment of his own. After experimenting and tinkering around with the data, he “discovered that gameplay typically consists of predictable patterns.”
The observational experiment began with 360 subjects divided into 60 groups of 6. They played 300 rounds of RPS where each and every move, win, and loss was recorded by the Chinese scientist. Ironically enough, the generated results confirmed that the subjects played rock 100 times, paper 100 times, and scissors 100 times…the Nash Equilibrium! It was also discovered that players that lost tended to rotate from rock to paper to scissors while the consistent winners would stick with one main strategy instead of switching it around. “This game exhibits collective cyclic motions which cannot be understood by the Nash Equilibrium concept but are successfully explained by the empirical data-inspired conditional response mechanism,” he said. Other data collected from flowingdata.com uncovered that “males have a tendency to throw rock on their first try, inexperienced RPS players will subconsciously deliver the item that won previously, and paper is thrown least often, so use it as a surprise.”
While we might think of it as a game, the concept of RPS lies within nature, as well. The common side-blotched lizard “exhibits a rock-paper-scissors pattern in its mating strategies.” There are three color types: orange, blue, and yellow. Scientists have observed the behavior of these reptiles and it has been confirmed that an orange will defeat a blue, a blue will defeat a yellow, and a yellow will beat an orange in a competition for a mate. That’s not all, however. Some bacteria also use a RPS strategy during antibiotic production. Doctors Benjamin Kerr and Brendan Bohannan of Stanford University discovered the pattern during a computer simulation in a laboratory. Biologist Benjamin C. Kirkup, Jr. “demonstrated that these antibiotics, “bacterioicins”, were active as Escherichia coli compete with each other in the intestines of mice, and that the rock-paper-scissors dynamics allowed for the continued competition among strains: antibiotic-producers defeat antibiotic-sensitives; antibiotic-resisters multiply and withstand and out-compete the antibiotic-producers, letting antibiotic-sensitives multiply and out-compete others; until antibiotic-producers multiply again.”
I find it extremely intriguing how a game thought of as “elementary” or “basic” is reflected in elements of nature throughout the world. Next time you find yourself in a RPS duel, keep in mind these strategies that will help you to succeed.
Sources:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2617808/The-science-Rock-Paper-Scissors-Mathematicians-reveal-hidden-pattern-game-guarantee-win.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rock-paper-scissors#Instances_of_use_in_real-life_scenarios
http://psychology.about.com/od/cindex/g/condresp.htm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nash_equilibrium
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_side-blotched_lizard
Pictures:
http://cdn.bgr.com/2015/09/rock-paper-scisscors.jpg
http://i0.wp.com/flowingdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/rock-paper-scissors.gif?zoom=1.5&resize=620%2C1412